The war in Ukraine has many aspects beyond those visible on the battlefield, which are more damaging in the long run for both Russia and Ukraine.
It is known that before the start of the war in Ukraine, American and European defense companies had the first say in relation to sales of defense material in Europe, with Russia however keeping a small quota from sales of its own weapons systems to European countries and Balkan countries, with Serbia being its steadfast ally.
This allowed Moscow to have the possibility to sell even more weapon systems in the future.
However, the war in Ukraine, the US-NATO-EU sanctions against Russia and the US-NATO move to equip the Ukrainians, initially with Russian weapons systems, that existed in any country on the European Continent, due to their familiarity with their use , while providing them with Western-style weapon systems, has disastrous results for the Russian military industry, which is losing its last foothold in the European market, from now on.
This in turn will have geopolitical movements and realignments, particularly visible in the sensitive Balkan region.
Russia demands an explanation from Serbia for sending ammunition to Ukraine
In fact, recently there has been a strong rumor about information about deliveries of Serbian ammunition to Ukraine, which prompted Russia to officially demand an explanation from the government in Belgrade, according to Romanian media , which then reports:
“The Russian side has asked Belgrade for an official position on information about deliveries of Serbian ammunition to Ukraine,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday.
Earlier, the Russian diplomat said that Moscow is “deeply concerned” by this information and stressed that the Russian Federation is closely monitoring the development of the situation. “We have already asked Belgrade to clarify this position” – Zakharova told the RBC television station.
The representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized that such statements should be made “not through mass media, not through Telegram channels, not through leaks, but through the officially declared position of the Serbian side.”
“The facts must be discovered and then the appropriate conclusions will be drawn, because this is indeed an extremely important issue for bilateral relations,” Zakharova added.
However, in our opinion, the above incident, if and when it is verified, will not be the first to indicate that Serbia-Russia relations are going through a crisis.
Serbia buys Rafale from France and not Mig-29 from Russia
It is recalled that Belgrade recently planned to buy six MiG-29 fighters. Serbia currently has 11 Soviet MiG-29 fighter jets. By eventually acquiring the additional six, Belgrade wanted to increase the combat capability of its air force.
However, Serbia is set to abandon the Russian fighter jets.
The President of Serbia Mr. Aleksandar Vucic announced that servicing the MiG-29 has become impossible. The war in Ukraine between Ukraine and Russia effectively prevents almost any military weapon system from being purchased by Russia.
For this reason, Mr. Vucic announced that Belgrade is moving towards another alternative.
French Dassault Rafale fighters are the best option, the Serbian president believes . Therefore, Serbia will send a letter of request, LoR, to France .
Serbia’s interest in the Rafale can be seen as another negative blow to Russian arms exports over the past 12 months.
There is also no accurate information on the current combat capability of the Serbian MiG-29SM. It is clear that the aging Soviet fighter jets need maintenance, and Serbia cannot afford to rely solely on them at a time when Russia is concentrating its military production capacity in the war with Ukraine.
The Kosovo issue and the role of the EU
It is a given that Russia does not want to lose Serbia as an ally, its stronghold in the Balkans.
However, Belgrade should realize that at this stage Russia cannot reinforce it, having completely turned its attention to the war in Ukraine and not having a land border with Serbia.
Vucic realizes that his country is dangerously isolated internationally, which in our view pushes him to become more flexible and debatable on the issue of Kosovo, as demonstrated by the non-recurrence of recent episodes of heated military conflict, thanks to the intervention of the EU first of all.
The EU is known to want the smoothing of Nationalist antagonisms and tendencies in the Western Balkans and the non-malicious influence of third countries in the region, which have every interest in rekindling antagonisms and turning them into armed conflicts in the Balkans.
Epilogue
In closing, we point out that Serbia is in the midst of conflicting interests, between Russia and the EU-USA, since the former wants to keep it as its ally in the Balkans, while Brussels and Washington want to “pull” it towards the West, essentially depriving the possibility of substantial intervention by Moscow in the Balkans in the future.
Finally, we know that there are historical ties between Moscow and Belgrade, which are not at all easy to sever from one moment to another, as long as Serbia wants to turn to the West, which is apparent, so we consider that it is very likely that from now on there will be serious internal problems and unrest in the friendly country of Serbia.
Source : Penta Post Agma